Were using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. The Raysare that team that is constantly underloved by metrics and subsequently overperforms. Wander Franco, Shane Baz and Shane McClanahan are expected to take up major roles on the team in their second seasons with the club, and Randy Arozarena and Brandon Lowe will again be dangerous at the plate. ET (ESPN). Cody Bellinger returns to All-Star form. From the starting rotation to the lineup, Los Angeles holds the advantages and its farm system is better. Everyone wants to know who will win the World Series, and according to the model, the answer is Dodgers are the most likely champion. Was Steven Matz's 2021 season a real change or is he more the guy who was well below average from 2017-20? The Records are updated Live on the MLB Standings after each game finishes. There is going to be some competition in Texas soon enough for the AL West crown. Instead, the model likes the chances ofthe Cardinalsto win the NL Central. The Cardinals often get far too much from their starters than they should. TheBrewers Way? Edwin Diaz was a dominant closer in 2021, and figures again to be among the best relievers in 2022. The bullpen lost Jansen, but added Craig Kimbrel to go along with Blake Treinen and Brusdar Graterol. Wed also feel comfortable projecting a Willson Contreras trade in our MLB predictions, coming in July. Three got there in both 2018 and 2017. The biggest thing we like about the Rays is their wealth of pitching, a crucial factor in a season where arms will be tested more than ever. The rest of the AL Central is largely thinking about the future. They'll be one of the best home teams in baseball this year. With the exception of a 107-win season from the Giants in 2021, the Dodgers have owned the NL West for the past decade. For now, well keep the Yankees in the No. MLB games today will offer daily predictions and the full schedule for the entire season from 2022 Opening Day to the World Series. The model likes the Dodgers to win the pennant and finish with the best record in baseball, while the Giants are the second-most likely team to win the pennant, barely edging out the Braves, who are likely to earn the second bye by virtue of winning their division with the second-best record among division winners. The NL Central hasn't had a repeat champion since the Cubs in 2016-17, and PECOTA expects that trend to continue in 2023, giving the Brewers a two-game edge over the Cardinals. No one saw the San Francisco Giants being that good last season, they surpassed their wildest expectations. Is the NL West a two- or three-team race? It bucks conventional wisdom, sure, but there are a few factors I can't ignore. But ZiPS doesnt see it that way, and neither does PECOTA. The lineup dips after Jose Ramirez, and even with the powerful bat of Franmil Reyes, Cleveland lacks true support for its star third baseman. The bullpen and rotation are stronger than last season and the lineup will be productive. This year, no one will sleep on the Mariners. Just looking around the NL West, there are two bad teams. While Cleveland missed the playoffs last year, they also have finished no lower than third in the AL Central since 2012. MLB Playoff Predictor (MLB Season Picker) lets you pick every game of the MLB Season via a season Schedule . And yet, they won 90 games last season and I'm going under 84.5 this year. Look, I know they do some sort of sorcery there, but the pitching depth is depleted and that's a rough division. How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. Jose Altuve continues to hit, and the cast around around him continues to get younger. Someone is going to have to take the crown away fromthe Astrosbefore anyone, even the model, would consider picking against them. The Phillieswere one of several teams competing near the end of the season for a wild card spot before the Cardinals went on their wild winning streak to take away that final spot. The Rangerswere the talk of the offseason before the lockout when they made two major splashy signings in bringing in Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to produce maybe the best middle-infield combination in baseball. MLB games today with odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Zac Gallen and Luke Weaver look like they could front Arizona's rotation at some point, but for now, those two spots belong to the more experienced Merrill Kelly and Madison Bumgarner. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB. The White Sox and Astros were picked to reach the top two spots in the American League more than any other team, while the top four AL East teams were the most likely in the simulations to also reach the playoffs. The model works by using past player data to project how they will perform in 2022. Hes going to be one of the best players in MLB before long and some even think hell get MVP votes in 2022. But just who will it be that claims the Commissioner's Trophy at the end of the year? Not only is Chicagos rotation among the best in the AL, its lineup is also outstanding. The Cubsare engaging in a rebuild/reload to try and keep the team competition, while also building up its young core again. The team has pieces that will help it win games, with Frankie Montas at the front of that rotation and top prospect Cristian Pache immediately slotting into the outfield with Ramon Laureano. Close. Vlad Guerrero Jr. ties Joe DiMaggio for the 2nd-most HR . After the NL East race came down to the wire in 2022, with the Braves edging the Mets via tiebreaker after both won 101 games, the two teams had drastically different offseasons. The Marinerswere the feel-good story of 2021, when out of nowhere, they rose up to post a 90-win season and nearly reach the postseason. They added Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and 2021 All-Stars in Adam Frazier and Jesse Winker Nobody really knows what to make of theAngels. It's been more than a decade since the Phillies made the playoffs but with Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber on board, this may be the best all-around team they've put together in recent years Credit to the Marlins for spending some money on Avisail Garcia ($53 million) and Jorge Soler ($36 million). From now on, all these projections will update every morning to reflect the latest . The model narrowly projects there to be three teams in the NL East reach the playoffs, with the Mets and Phillies earning wild cards to join the division-winning Padres. 2022 Year to Date: 2023 Projected Rest of Season: 2023 Projected Full Season: Team G W L W% RDif RS/G RA/G G W L W% RDif RS/G Major League Baseball's arduous 2021-22offseason featured a 99-day lockout that ultimately resulted in an abbreviated spring training and a delayed Opening Day. At least they have one of the best MLB lineups. But this will be a season for fans to count on young talent gaining experience to help the next reloaded Oakland team. You famously cannot predict baseball. One of the more remarkable tidbits about last season was the Dodgers' total being 103.5, them hitting the over with room to spare and still not winning the NL West. They will join Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors The model indicates that in a World Series against the NL, which is loaded with teams that boast top-line pitching staffs, Tampa Bay's staff is more likely to hold up in a series. Edward Sutelan is a content producer at The Sporting News. MORE:Cody Bellinger is struggling again, but Dodgers are so good that it might not matter. The AL East is the best division in baseball, and it doesn't take a model to know that. The NL Central has not had a team repeat as division winner since the Cubs repeated in first place in 2016 and 2017. While the MLB season is still a few months away, there has been plenty of excitement to what the new campaign could bring. 2023 Projected Standings. It makes them the team to beat in the NL Central, especially if Christian Yelich rebounds and Kolten Wong stays healthy. I'm more a fan of being right and this one was just pulling me in. But more than anything, the model is high on the pitching, with Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Jordan Montgomery and a healthy Luis Severino leading the team in 2022. This should be very difficult, as every team -- at least in theory -- should have a total right around where it is expected to finish. Joey Votto has never hit 40 homers in a season. All posts tagged "MLB" Feb. 22, 2023. . Is it as simple as looking at their negative-51 run differential, which carried with it and expected 76-86 record? FIVE BIG QUESTIONS:AL East | AL Central | AL WestNL East | NL Central | NL West. Everyone is just waiting forthe Angelsto finally live up to their potential. Pitching depth will be crucial because of the compressed training period before the regular season starts. Instead, their big additions were Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling and Taylor Rogers. Last year, the division placed three teams in the playoffs the most of any division in baseball and it expects to be right back in that same position next year. Top 2023 Gotham Stakes predictions One shocker: Demling is high on Lugan Knight, who is tied for third in the odds, at 6-1. Joey Votto continues to produce at a star talent, but heading into his age 38 campaign, the model expects some regression to take a toll. 2. As much as I love Shane McClanahan, he won't be carrying an ace workload. Bo Bichette is talented enough to take another step forward and join Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. as an MVP contender. There is potential in this team to over-perform its projections. This is an admittedly risky venture. Across the division, the Twins had a perplexing winter. Toronto has the best odds of winning the pennant at 16.9 percent, while the White Sox and Astros trail narrowly behind at 15.2 and 13.9 percent, respectively. A complete list of this year's voters: . The Sporting News' model sees the Blue Jays as a slim favorite to win the division over the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox, but it expects all four teams to reach the playoffs. The NL West was incredibly loaded in 2021, with the Giants finishing with the best record in baseball and the Dodgers owning the second-best record in baseball. Arizona is avoiding a total rebuild and the Ketel Marte extensions signals he wont be moved. With the money saved by choosing Olson over Freddie Freeman, Atlanta signed Kenley Jansen and Collin McHugh. Both of these teams will be in the playoffs, everyones preference between the two is understandable. Are we really counting on Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson, then? You can do it! From back-to-back division champions to the cellar, the Twins'tumble in 2021 came as a shock after looking like a dominant team in each of the prior two years. MORE:Reds, As top list of five MLB fan bases experiencing post-lockout blues. Projection rollouts have become a time-honored tradition in the lead up to every baseball season, and FanGraphs writer Dan Szymborskis ZiPS and Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA are two of the most trusted projection systems around. USA TODAY. We also like the depth pieces added to the staff (Carlos Martinez, Matt Boyd) and it will prove crucial this year. Opening Day is set for Thursday (for 14 teams, at least), and thankfully for baseball fans, we'll still have a full, 162-game season in 2022. EX. Chicago averaged nearly five runs a game with injuries limiting . The model doesn't think the signings make Texas a full-fledged contender just yet, but it sees this as a major step in the right direction. The odds of winning the pennant tell the story of just how locked down the field sees the 2022 playoff picture. By Dom Luszczyszyn. 2 starter acquired before being more optimistic with our MLB predictions. The 2020 World Series champions have +600 odds to lift the Commissioner's Trophy in 2022, while the Pirates, Orioles and Arizona Diamondbacks are tied for the lowest at +25000. Chicago still finishes atop the AL Central in our MLB predictions, but the separation is decreasing. March 30, 2022. The bullpen, which was already one of the best last year, improved with the signing of Kenley Jansen to join Will Smith, Tyler Matzek and AJ Minter. The Blue Jays were widely considered to be one of the AL favorites to reach the World Series entering 2022, but they ended up finishing seven games behind the Yankees in the AL East and were swept by the Mariners in the AL Wild Card Series. October 6th, 2022. Let's take a look at each game with odds from DraftKings . Arizona also has to be relieved the DH is now in the league so it can give young slugger Seth Beer a way to consistently fit in the lineup. Despite believing that the Astros are more likely to win the pennant, it sees the Rays as a slightly more likely team to win the World Series.